Oklahoma City Thunder
Starting off with the 1 vs. 8 seed matchups, in the western conference the choice is clear. The Oklahoma City Thunder have held the best record in the NBA for a majority of the 82-game season; finishing with an impressive 68 wins and 14 losses. The Thunder finished this historic season with a net rating of +12.8. Meaning they were outscoring opponents by an average of 12.8 points for the entire season. This mark is right up there with the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, and we all know how that postseason went for the Bulls.
In addition to this, the Thunder have the highest defensive rating in the league, leading the league in almost every statistical category on the defensive end. Not to mention in the second half of the season, the Thunder propelled themselves to a top 3 offensive rating as well. No team with this level of regular season effectiveness and success on both ends of the floor has gone on to miss the NBA finals, and the Thunder do not appear bound to break that streak.
In terms of the matchup, the Thunder face a Grizzlies team who fired their tenured head-coach Taylor Jenkins late into the season. Additionally, a Grizzlies team that has fallen from the 2-seed to the 8-seed in the west since the all-star break. The Grizzlies have not been playing their best basketball of late, and I do not believe that will change going up against a Thunder team that has beaten them in 9 straight instances dating back to 2022. I think the bigger question for this series is not who will win the series, but if the Grizzlies will be able to win one game.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The 1 vs 8-seed matchup in the Eastern Conference should hold a similar outcome to that of the Western Conference. Finishing with a record of 64-18, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been right there with the Thunder throughout the whole season in terms of record. Boasting an inverse of historical success to the Oklahoma City Thunder, as Cleveland has had the number 1 rated offense in the league throughout the season. While maintaining a top 3-5 defense in the league. Like OKC with defense, the Cavaliers lead the league in almost every statistical category on the offensive end and appear to be a very difficult out in the playoffs.
Darius Garland has returned to form, after a lackluster season last year, his scoring and assist totals, in addition to his shooting efficiency have rebounded this year. Evan Mobley has shown development on the offensive end that many fans and certainly the Cavaliers front office has been waiting for. Jarrett Allen, while he has had his playoff woes, is still undeniably effective on the defensive end. Ty Jerome has taken leaps off the bench, proving that he is a valuable member of a championship caliber rotation. Finally, the addition of Deandre Hunter at the trade deadline has been a quality pick-up for this organization. Filling the gaps for this team defensively on the perimeter, while also being a reliable offensive option averaging around 17 points per game, shooting ridiculously efficiently from behind the arc. This Cavaliers team has all the makings of a championship contender and certainly a team that will not be a first-round exit.
In terms of matchup, the Cavaliers drew a Miami Heat team that in my opinion, lacks direction, after trading away their star player Jimmy Butler at the mid-season trade deadline. The Heat will always have their hard-nosed, tough culture and style of play making them a difficult opponent in the playoffs. However, I do not believe this team has the talent or the consistent offensive capabilities to keep up with the historical rate of offensive success that we have seen from the Cleveland Cavaliers this season. I do believe the games in this series will be closer than that of the Thunder vs. Grizzlies, however, I would be shocked if the Miami Heat won more than 1 game.
Golden State Warriors
Moving on to the 2 vs 7-seed matchups, the 7th seeded Golden State Warriors are my first upset prediction of the day. According to betting odds and common predictions this pick is hardly an upset however I will give some respect to the second seeded Houston Rockets.
The Rockets are a 52-win team that is a top 5 team on the defensive end with a plethora of young and athletic wings, whose energy and motor will make it difficult for any team to find success offensively. However, offensively is where the Rockets scare me. Their leading scorer, Jalen Green, has had a career filled with offensive inefficiency and inconsistency and finished the regular season scoring less than 10 points in his last 3 outings. From the number 1 scoring option on a playoff team, this production is unacceptable. These shortcomings are overshadowed by the depth of this roster, boasting 7 players scoring in double figures, which has only been done one other time since the NBA/ABA merger. However, the lack of an elite, consistent scoring option and closer is something I believe will severely hinder this team in the playoffs, when the game slows down and transition points are harder to come by.
I would give the Rockets a better chance if they weren’t playing the Golden State Warriors. Since acquiring Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline in February the Warriors have had a top 5 record in the league and the number 1 rated defense in the league. A defense that I believe will be particularly effective against an inexperienced and mediocre Rockets offense. This is a team that I believe is far better than their record, not to mention they have 2 of the league’s best proven playoff performers in Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. While the Rockets have overachieved this season, I believe their success will be halted in this first round matchup against 3 of the most successful playoff performers of this generation. In later rounds there are certainly concerns surrounding the incompletion of this Warriors roster. Their desperate lack of size, in addition to their lack of consistent 3-point shooting outside of Stephen Curry will be hindrances in later rounds. However, I am nearly certain they will have enough to overcome the Rockets in round one. In what I believe will be a series featuring competitive games decided by the superior talent and experience of the Golden State Warriors.
Boston Celtics
In the Eastern Conference the 2 vs 7-seed matchup is a lot less exciting. The Boston Celtics arguably have the best constructed roster in the NBA. Any member of the starting 5 for this team could score 30 on any given night. They have, in my opinion, the 6th-man of the year in Peyton Pritchard adding to this dominant roster. With some solid role players in Al Horford and Sam Hauser to further bolster this team. The reigning champion Celtics have the experience, talent, and depth to make quick work of this series and advance far beyond the first round in the playoffs.
The Celtics are matched up against the Orlando Magic, a team that is missing their best guard in Jalen Suggs, who had season ending surgery a couple of months ago. Even with Suggs, one of this team’s biggest struggles is playmaking on the offensive end. The Orlando Magic have had a bottom-5 offensive rating across the league this season, and that will be exposed in these playoffs. Even with budding stars Poalo Banchero and Franz Wagner, this team does not have the offensive capability to keep up with a team who set an NBA record for most 3-pointers made in a season. While I do think the Orlando Magic defense will make the games in this series more competitive than many fans expect. Their offense will have multiple instances with minutes of scoreless play in the slower-paced flow of playoff basketball and I do not believe the Magic have a real shot of winning more than 1 or 2 games in this series.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Moving on to the 3 vs 6-seed matchups, I have my second upset prediction in this series. I believe the Minnesota Timberwolves will beat the Los Angeles Lakers in a long and competitive series. The Lakers acquired a top 5 player in the league this season in Luka Doncic to pair with Lebron James. This for many people, pushed the Lakers into contender status in these playoffs. However, their roster is still incomplete and drew an unfortunate matchup in this series that will reveal this to those unaware.
Continuing with the Lakers, the Luka Doncic trade saw the Lakers give up Anthony Davis. Davis was really their only source of interior defense and size, reliable enough to receive extended minutes in the playoffs. Jaxson Hayes has filled the gap for this team during the regular season, however his lack of floor-spacing, perimeter defense, experience, and foul-trouble, will allow him to get easily ran off the floor in the playoffs. Similar to what happens with Rudy Gobert in every post season. This leaves the Lakers with an undersized lineup, featuring a plethora of inconsistent and one-dimensional role players that will not be able to make up for this size and interior presence against a Minnesota Timberwolves team known for those reasons.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are fresh off a conference finals appearance with one of the best young stars in the game in Anthony Edwards and a big and versatile roster that should prove a matchup nightmare for the Lakers. I expect this team to dominate the interior in scoring, rebounding, and defensively this series. With the depth in perimeter defenders to give the big-3 of Luka, Austin Reaves, and Lebron enough trouble to give the Timberwolves the edge in this series. For this to happen, I also believe Anthony Edwards will need to put together an elite series of basketball. Which I am confident he will do and why I believe the Timberwolves will be able to advance from the first round.
Detroit Pistons
In another exciting 3 vs. 6-seed series, my 3rd upset prediction will be the Detroit Pistons beating the New York Knicks in a long and competitive series. The Pistons are a young and inexperienced team; however I believe they have what it takes to win this series.
The New York Knicks have held the 3 seed in the eastern conference for a majority of the season, however they are not as daunting as their standing shows. The Knicks are 0-10 against the 3 teams with the best record in the league and have a tendency to underperform against tougher competition. However, the reason I believe they will lose this series is because of their coach Tom Thibodeau. I expect him to be fired after this series for his coaching practices utilizing a small rotation with heavy minutes for starters throughout the course of the season which has consistently led to injury and enhanced fatigue for his teams in the playoffs. Just last year, we saw this Knicks roster decimated with injury in the playoffs, leading to an earlier exit than they should have had. The same will happen this season. The Knicks are severely lacking in depth and very over-dependent on their starting 5 players to carry them. A burden that has been present all season as 4 of the Knicks starters ranked in the top 20 in minutes played with season and will hinder them in these playoffs.
Playing against a Detroit Pistons team that plays a physical style of defense that wears players down throughout a series. Featuring a defensive talent in Ausar Thompson who should be capable of making Jalen Brunson work much harder to be effective. In addition to Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart who will do the same against Karl Anthony Towns. Are why I believe the Pistons will inevitably wear down a top-heavy Knicks team and grind out a win in this series to advance to the next round. My only concern for this prediction is the Pistons similar overdependence on Cade Cunningham, who averages around 20 shots per game and has a top 3 usage rating in the league. Other players such as Malik Beasly, Tim Hardaway Jr., Tobias Harris, and Jalen Duren, will need to step up offensively if the Pistons are going to win this series.
Los Angeles Clippers
The final upset I am predicting in this first round, will be the 5th seeded Los Angeles Clippers defeating the 4th seeded Denver Nuggets. The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the hottest teams in the league since the all-star break and their star player Kawhi Leonard, seems to be returning to his all-NBA form.
The Denver Nuggets are led by arguably the best player in basketball, and certainly the best offensive player in Nikola Jokic. Jokic’s dominance on the offensive end this season cannot be understated and his ability to generate a good shot for an offense every time down the floor gives the Nuggets a chance to win any series.
However, the roster constructed around Jokic is the worst we have seen in some time, and I believe will lead to their early exit this year. Younger role players such as Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther have not taken the desired steps in development this season. Russell Westbrook’s playoff shortcomings are well-known. Micheal Porter Jr.’s main purpose is to shoot the ball, which he has often struggled to do in past playoff runs. Finally, Christan Braun and Aaron Gordon provide invaluable versatility on defense, but Brauns offensive inefficiencies and Aaron Gordon’s lackluster floor spacing mean that a large load will be placed on Murray and Jokic this season. A load they are capable of handling, however against a Clippers defense that has been top 5 in the league all season, leads me to think there may be trouble for this team offensively at times.
Factor in the Nuggets being a bottom-third defense in the league. Combined with James Harden playing some of his best basketball in years, Ivica Zubac and Norman Powell having the best offensive season of their careers and Kawhi Leonard finally healthy and in rhythm. Makes it incredibly hard to believe that the Nuggets will be able to overcome their flaws in a first round series. I believe the Clippers are capable of winning this series in 5 games, but at minimum I expect the Los Angeles Clippers to be victorious in a 6 or 7 game series.
Indiana Pacers
My final prediction is that the Indiana Pacers will handle business in the 4 vs 5-seed matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks. We saw this series last year, where the Bucks were missing one of their 2 stars in Damian Lillard or Giannis Antetokounmpo and their role players were unable to fill the void. I believe the same will happen in this series as Damian Lillard will miss at least one game putting them into a hole they will not overcome.
The Pacers have been performing well under the radar all season. Tyrese Haliburton has been playing some of the best basketball we have seen from him averaging nearly 20 points and 10 assists again. The Pacers have a lot more depth than most NBA fans give them credit for, and one of the most underrated players in my opinion in Pascal Siakam. Siakam is one of the most consistent players I have seen and will get at least 20 points every game, which will prove valuable against a Bucks team that is unreliable outside of Giannis.
In terms of the Bucks, their lack of youth and depth is very concerning in this series and going forward with their future. Everyone outside of Giannis is inconsistent on the offensive end. Kyle Kuzma has not and will not fill the role that Khris Middleton once played for this team. The subtraction of Jrue Holiday has left a whole in the perimeter defense of this team that they have not been able to fill. Finally, overall, Damian Lillard’s impact on the offensive end has not been enough to justify his lackluster defense. In terms of net rating, the Bucks actually play just as well when Giannis is on the floor without Dame, as when they play together. Which leads me to question the overall effectiveness of this duo, and serious doubt their capabilities in this series and moving forward. While the return of Damian Lillard to the lineup will make this series more interesting, the Pacers depth and consistency is what I believe will separate them in this series and lead to them advancing to the next round.
Kenny Owens-Nguyen 
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